Fiscal and Monetary Indicators
Definition: The total amount of money owed by a government to its creditors.
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Measurement: Usually expressed as a percentage of GDP. Provides an indication of a country’s ability to repay its debt.
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Impact: High levels of government debt can lead to higher interest rates, reduced government spending on essential services, and potential economic instability.
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Definition:
- Budget Deficit: Occurs when government spending exceeds government revenue.
- Budget Surplus: Occurs when government revenue exceeds government spending.
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Impact: Budget deficits can lead to increased government debt, while budget surpluses can be used to reduce debt or fund public programs.
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Definition: The cost of borrowing money, usually expressed as an annual percentage rate.
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Central Bank Influence: Central banks (e.g., the Federal Reserve in the US) use interest rates as a tool to control inflation and stimulate economic growth.
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Impact:
- Lower interest rates encourage borrowing and investment, stimulating economic growth.
- Higher interest rates discourage borrowing and investment, helping to control inflation.
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Types
- Federal Funds Rate
- Discount Rate
- Prime Rate
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External Sector Indicators
Definition: The difference between a country’s exports and imports of goods and services.
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Trade Surplus: Exports exceed imports.
Trade Deficit: Imports exceed exports.
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Impact: Trade surpluses can boost economic growth, while trade deficits can reduce it.
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Definition: The value of one currency in terms of another.
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Appreciation: A currency becomes more valuable relative to another currency.
Depreciation: A currency becomes less valuable relative to another currency.
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Impact: Exchange rates affect the price of exports and imports, influencing a country’s trade balance.
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Definition: Investments made by a company or individual in one country into business interests located in another country.
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Impact: FDI can bring new technology, jobs, and capital into a country, boosting economic growth.
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Other Important Indicators
Definition: A measure of consumers’ optimism or pessimism regarding the state of the economy and their personal financial situations.
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Impact: High consumer confidence tends to lead to increased spending, while low consumer confidence tends to lead to decreased spending.
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Definition: A measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors.
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Interpretation: A PMI above 50 indicates an expansion of the sector, while a PMI below 50 indicates a contraction.
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Examples: New home sales, existing home sales, housing prices, and mortgage rates.
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Impact: The housing market is a leading indicator of economic activity. A strong housing market tends to indicate a healthy economy, while a weak housing market tends to indicate a struggling economy.
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